Ian Colville, Author at Carpathian Capital Management

D.R. Horton Highlights the Role of 3rd Party Land Developers Like Carpathian Capital in their Pipeline

D.R. Horton’s (the largest home builder in America) results today beat all market estimates as homebuilding revenue grew by 13% to $8.5 billion, and the number of homes closed increased by 15%. On the earning call, the Horton team highlighted that 62% of the homes...

Capitalizing on Trends: Investment Opportunities in Age-Targeted Communities and Housing Shortages

A recent survey highlighted by Builder Magazine shows a strong preference among U.S. baby boomers to “age in place,” with active adult or age-targeted communities being their second choice. This trend contributes to the ongoing housing shortage, as older...

Households vs. Housing: The Inventory Gap

Though the general sentiment in the market is that the U.S. is experiencing a housing shortage, it can be hard to quantify how severe the shortage is, and no chart has all the answers. One piece of data we look at is how the number of households compares to housing...

2024 Housing Forecast: Navigating Fed Rate Cuts

Though no one can predict what the Fed will do with absolute certainty, the consensus from Wall Street banks is between two and five interest rate cuts in 2024. While Fed cuts do not directly reduce mortgage rates, the cuts do send a signal to the markets that the Fed...

Lock-In Effect: Shaping the Housing Market

Thank you to the excellent Calculated Risk substack for pointing out a fascinating working paper from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) that attempts to quantify the impact of the “lock-in effect” of people with lower mortgage rates not wanting to...