The Trump 2.0 policy shift is already impacting the housing market. According to NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, regulatory changes, tariffs, and tax policy will shape the 2025 real estate outlook.
- Home sales hit a 30-year low (4.06M in 2024), while the inventory of homes for sale remains low at a 3.3-month supply. Although home price growth is slowing, affordability continues to be a challenge.
- Mortgage rates remain near 7%, with the Fed expected to hold rates steady until at least Q3. Investors are watching fiscal policy closely, as it will determine future rate cuts.
- Tariffs on Canadian lumber could reach as high as 55%, driving up homebuilding costs and underscoring the need for regulatory reforms to offset some of these impacts.
Investor Takeaway: Expect higher material costs, steady rates, and potential tax policy shifts – all of which will affect real estate returns. Opportunities remain in new construction and rental markets, but investors should weigh these evolving dynamics carefully.
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